On Dec 12, 2008, at 5:20 PM, SA wrote:
> Doug, at the late-1982 peak, 85.2% of prime-age men (25-54) had
> jobs. In November 2008, only 84.9% had jobs. If we lose another 2.5%
> of employment, obviously that rate will go down even further. It
> will probably be the lowest since the Depression.
The EPR of prime-age men has been in decline for over 50 years. A trendline regression on the monthly series provided by Excel is:
y = -0.0121x + 94.971 R2 = 0.7641
where x = the number of the month since January 1948 (1/48 = 1, 2/48 = 2, etc.). That works out to a decline of about 0.14 point a year.
Late 1982 was, of course, a trough, not a peak. The low in the EPR came a few months after the cycle trough, in February 1983. Since then, the EPR for prime age women is up 10.7 points; for both sexes, it's up 5.4. The overall EPR is up 4.3 points. So we've got a way to go to Depression levels.
Doug