>>>> Doug Henwood
> <http://www.gallup.com/poll/104263/Education-Gender-Help-Predict-
> Democratic-Preferences.aspx>
>
> Education and Gender Help Predict Democratic Preferences
> College education a major differentiator in choosing Clinton vs. Obama
>
> ^^^^
> CB: Kind of odd that they didn't check out whether race predicts
> preference. Americans are so scared of race.
<http://www.gallup.com/poll/104275/Black-Men-Women-Equally-Likely- Support-Obama.aspx>
February 11, 2008
Black Men, Women Equally Likely to Support Obama Gender gap evident among whites and Hispanics
USADemocratsElection 2008AmericasNorthern America by Frank Newport and Lydia Saad PRINCETON, NJ -- The gender gap in Democratic preferences for Hillary Clinton versus Barack Obama -- with a greater share of women than men supporting Clinton -- is evident among whites and Hispanics, but not blacks. Blacks' overwhelming support for Obama to be the 2008 Democratic presidential nominee is just as strong among women as it is among men.
In Gallup Poll Daily tracking interviews conducted Feb. 1-9, only a quarter of black men (25%) and black women (23%) say they support Clinton for the nomination, while about two-thirds of each group favors Obama. This is based on blacks who are Democrats or are independents who lean to the Democratic Party.
Across the same period, Gallup finds white Democrats of both sexes more likely to favor Clinton than Obama. However, among white Democratic women, the margin in favor of Clinton is 28 points, 59% vs. 31%, compared with a 10-point margin (50% vs. 40%) among white Democratic men. In short, the gender gap is significant among this group.
A gender gap of similar scope is seen among Hispanic Democrats, who, overall, have been supporting Clinton to an even higher degree than have whites. Hispanic women favor Clinton by a 37-point margin, compared with the 17-point margin seen among Hispanic men.
Blacks as Favorable Toward Clinton as Obama
The Gallup Poll Daily tracking survey does not measure favorability toward the candidates, but according to two USA Today/Gallup polls from January through early February, blacks' preference for Obama is not necessarily a rejection of Clinton. Her favorability scores among black Democrats are about as high as Obama's.
Thus, it appears that blacks' uniformly high support for Obama is not because of an odious personal comparison between him and Hillary Clinton, but because of the greater appeal of his candidacy (perhaps because he could become the first black president in U.S. history).
Similarly, white Democratic women's support for Clinton is not necessarily a rejection of Obama. In fact, Clinton's favorability score among white Democratic women in these recent polls is only slightly higher than Obama's (78% vs. 71%).
Bottom Line/Implications
There are major differences in Democrats' support for Clinton versus Obama based on race, ethnicity, and gender. Blacks overwhelmingly support Obama. Hispanics and women disproportionately support Clinton. It can be hypothesized that the cross-voting pressures of gender and race on voters could be particularly strong on black women. The tug of supporting a woman for president could draw them to Clinton, while the tug of supporting a black could tug them toward Obama.
This analysis shows that a bias for supporting the female candidate may be in play with white and Hispanic Democratic women. However, whatever desire black women may have to support a candidate who could become the first woman president in U.S. history is muted by their apparently stronger desire to support Obama -- who could become the first black president in U.S. history.
These conclusions are based on data collected Feb. 1-9.