Bank crises kill, says study By Clive Cookson, Science Editor
A global banking crisis would kill tens of thousands of people through heart attacks brought on by stress and anxiety, Cambridge university researchers will warn today.
David Stuckler and colleagues have carried out what they say is the first study relating banking crises to mortality. Their statistical analysis of 40 years of data from the World Bank and World Health Organisation concludes that a "system-wide" crisis increases deaths from heart disease by an average 6.4 per cent in wealthy nations and more in developing countries.
The Cambridge researchers say that in Britain between 1,300 and 5,100 people could die if "a significant proportion of banks" suffered crises similar to that at Northern Rock. Interviews with people queueing to take their money out of Northern Rock last September showed that they suffered stress similar to that experienced in earthquakes, wars or even terrorist incidents.
"Our findings show that financial crises aren't just about money - they also impact on people's health," said Dr Stuckler, a social epidemiologist. "This report shows that containing hysteria and preventing widespread panic is important not only to stop these incidents leading to a systemic bank crisis but also to prevent potentially thousands of heart disease deaths."
Commenting on the study, June Davison of the British Heart Foundation said: "Intense emotional stress has long been associated with triggering heart attacks in those people with existing coronary heart disease. However, we still need to further understand the mechanisms of how this may happen."
The World Bank database includes 117 systemic bank crises, defined as episodes in which a significant proportion of a country's banks fail or their assets are exhausted. Five of these affected high-income Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries - Spain in 1977, Norway in 1987 and Finland, Sweden and Japan in 1991 - but the vast majority were in the developing world.
The researchers related the crises to male cardiovascular death rates from the WHO Global Mortality Database. Their statistical models attempted to correct for potential "confounding variables", such as the fact that an economic downturn and financial uncertainty may increase mortality rates regardless of whether there is a banking crisis.
The results show a brief surge in cardiac deaths every time there is a systemic bank failure. The effect is more pronounced in developing countries, said Dr Stuckler, perhaps because people are more concerned about losing everything than their counterparts in wealthy countries with stronger financial and health safety nets.
The report, published in the journal Globalisation and Health, suggests that the elderly would be at particular risk of heart attacks in the event of a widespread banking meltdown. Older people are much more likely to feel threatened by risks to their accumulated savings and they are the most sensitive to acute stress.