By Jennifer Jacobs . Staff Writer Des Moines Register January 1, 2008
Ames, Ia. -- Unhappy with the news that Democrat Hillary Clinton didn't top The Des Moines Register's Iowa Poll, her aides this morning say it includes more independent voters than would be expected to participate in the caucuses.
The bottom line is that the poll shows that a lot more independents in Iowa want to participate in the Democratic caucus, according the company that polls for the Register.
Meanwhile, the Clinton campaign is talking up two other new polls that show Clinton leading in Iowa.
Clinton's pollster Mark Penn said this morning: We do not see this poll as accurately reflecting the trends we are seeing in other polls, on our nightly canvasses or in our own polls, and voters should understand this is a very close race, and that their participation on caucus night could make all of the difference.
Penn said 40 percent of the caucusgoers included in the Register poll relied were independents, even though only 19 percent of caucusgoers were independents in 2004, and 19 percent in 2004.
Under their model, only 55 percent of the caucusgoers would be Democrats,Penn said in a blog on the campaign's Web site.
Looking at Democrats alone, Clinton wins that group, with 33 percent, and 27 for Obama and 25 for Edwards, Penn said.
J. Ann Selzer, president of the firm Selzer & Co., which polls for The Des Moines Register, said the poll didn't oversample independents or employ any sort of a new model.
"We used the same method we used in 2004 to define likely caucusgoers," Selzer said. "And, yes, we have more independents than in 2004, and more than in our past polls in 2007. It's something we worry about, along with many other things."
Selzer weighted the results to look like the proportion of party participants in 2004 and Clinton would've won, she said.
She said: "It is true, Senator Clinton leads with Democrats. It is also true that other campaigns have courted independents."
"This is really a sit-and-wait time for pollsters," Selzer said.
Edwards' pollster Harrison Hickman echoed Penn, calling the findings "at odds with known tenets of partisan caucus participation."
"This matters because the entirety of Obama's 'lead' is due to his advantage among non-Democrats," Hickman wrote in a memo.
Meanwhile, Edwards, campaigning in Ames, brushed off the results. "I don't need a poll to tell me we're moving and we're moving every single day and we're moving in the right direction," he said.
The new CNN/Opinion Research poll has Clinton clinging to a 2-point lead, with 33 percent to Obama's 31 percent. Edwards trails with 22 percent in that poll, taken Dec. 26-30.
The Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll's lineup is 30-26-25, with Clinton at the top, followed by Obama and Edwards. It was conducted Dec. 28-31.
Minutes after The Des Moines Register poll results were released at 9 p.m. Monday night, Clinton had to appear at a New Year's Eve campaign event in Des Moines.
"Party tonight, back to work tomorrow," was her message in a lickety-split speech to the crowd of about 1,000 fans with cone-shaped party hats and faux leis.
Clinton, flanked by her husband, Bill, and daughter, Chelsea, was on stage no more than 10 minutes. She seemed upbeat, but not as jubilant as she'd been earlier in the day at Muscatine campaign rally, where she strolled in to a backstage area singing a little tune about a happy new year.
"I feel really good about what's going to happen Thursday night in the caucuses but I feel good about it because of all of you," Clinton told the audience in the atrium of Capital Square in downtown Des Moines. "Thank you and God bless you!"
After she stepped off the stage, her closest supporters seemed to want to comfort her. Bonnie Campbell, a former attorney general of Iowa, pulled her into an extended hug, talked into her ear, and patted her back. Then Congressman Leonard Boswell wrapped her in a long, tight bear hug.
Clinton rang in the New Year at the Hotel Fort Des Moines with her husband, daughter and her 88-year-old mother, Dorothy Rodham, who appeared on the campaign trail in Ames, Sioux City and Council Bluffs today.
Clinton goes on to Iowa City tonight.
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080101/NEWS09/ 80101001/-1/SPORTS12
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