[lbo-talk] exit poll...

[John Thornton]

Doug Henwood wrote:
> Interesting: Hillary's voters hate Bush more than Obama's, and think  
> she's more likely to win than his voters did. And she beat Obama in  
> every educational category except postgrad. Her voters are more  
> likely to be "falling behind"; his, "getting ahead." Surreally, her  
> voters are more eager to get out of Iraq, too.
>
> <http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/ 
> index.html#NHDEM>

The first is to be expected isn't it? After all the animosity heaped on 
the Clinton's by the Repugs.
The falling behind/getting ahead isn't surprising either.
One thing I have wondered is that since non-rigorous polls tend to mask 
negative racial opinions is this fact reflected in the weighted 
adjustments for these Presidential polls or is this  unimportant when 
showing preferences for candidates?
Put another way, how likely is it that people will claim they are going 
to support a black candidate to mask their negative racial opinions?
Could this explain some of the apparent higher support for Obama over 
Hillary in NH polls when in actuality Hillary won?
Has this been raised at AAPOR?

John Thornton