[lbo-talk] Rogoff & Reinhart on US banking crisis in historical context: Big Dip Ahead

Julio Huato juliohuato at gmail.com
Sun Jan 13 21:56:08 PST 2008


Michael Pollak wrote:


> They also have a nice quip in the conclusion, that the run-up to the
> post-subprime banking crisis looks a lot like the petro-dollar
> recycling boom of the late 70s that led to the third-world debt banking
> crisis of the early 80s. The only difference is that this time we recycled the
> money to a developing country in the US, namely the subprime
> borrowers. But the effect on the banks was the same.

I first encountered reference to R&R's paper in Martin Wolf's (FT) 1/9 column. Wolf was also impressed with the parallel between the credit boom in the late 1970s and the subprime boom in the early and mid 2000s made by R&R. I thought then that this analogy had been raised on PEN-L way before R&R called attention to it:

http://archives.econ.utah.edu/archives/pen-l/2007w32/msg00188.htm



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