On Jan 21, 2008, at 5:37 PM, double bluff wrote:
> I suggest you give a look here:
> http://www.shadowstats.com/
This stuff is pretty questionable. I don't see any disclosure of his technique in the CPI primer. The BLS says in this paper:
<http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2006/05/art2full.pdf>
that geometric averages take only about a quarter point off the 1999-2004 average inflation rate - how does this guy manage to double the inflation rate?
The BLS also tried applying the EU's price index technique to U.S. data:
<http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2006/05/art3full.pdf>
and found not much difference between that experimental measure and official U.S. data.
The Shadow's notes on employment, which I've looked at closely and which is a series I know very well, are completely ridiculous.
Do you just believe things that you see on the web because you want to believe them?
Doug