[lbo-talk] let's all pray for a depression

[John Thornton]

Seth Ackerman wrote:
> Doug Henwood wrote:
>
>   
>> The 1930s are not a very inspiring example. Depression, fascism, and  
>> world war - is that what you're looking for? Angus Maddison's stats  
>> don't show much of a benefit for Latin America during the 1930s; the  
>> region had a per capita GDP about 31% of the U.S. in 1930, and about  
>> the same in 1940. Bourgeois stats, I know.
>>  
>>
>>     
>
> I'm not going to plump for the 1930's as an inspiring decade, but I 
> disagree with the analysis here. The '30's caused a regime shift. It may 
> not be visible in the stats for that decade, but it shows up in the 
> stats for the subsequent three. In Europe, the Depression finally forced 
> countries off the gold standard and laid the basis for a postwar 
> full-employment monetary policy. Probably couldn't have happened without 
> the shock of the Slump. In Latin America, it forced a 
> political-intellectual revolution towards the goal of building industry 
> instead of aiming for "complementary" production with Europe. Brazil and 
> Mexico never would have built formidable industrial bases without that 
> 1930's shift. Those bases show up in the stats from 1939-1979. (This is 
> something I know a bit about - I wrote my undergrad thesis on this topic.)
>
> Seth

One can just as easily argue that is was the post 1934 period that saw 
the greatest increases in labor militancy (a time of raising 
expectations, not falling) and that the crisis itself brought us fascism 
and millions dead from WWII as factions of the capitalist class fought 
seeking to gain advantages over one another.
Looking around today does one hesitate to imagine that any similar 
crisis would bring us something more along the lines of fascist Germany 
than a socialist revolution in the U.S?
At days end we know for a fact that a fiscal crisis will immiserate 
millions but we do not have any reasonable assurances that it will 
provide the hoped for catalyst for change.
Only from a position of privilege can one hope for a crisis. See how 
many working class converts you get telling them they need to suffer 
more than they already do before their lives can improve. Or try this, 
during the depths of a depression tell a large group of out-of-work 
people how much you hoped for this day so you can raise their 
consciousness and hopefully end their suffering. Make certain you have a 
clear path to an exit if you try this last suggestion.
Knowing that Mexico and Brazil built up an industrial base because of a 
crisis is not the same as knowing that without such a crisis they would 
never have done so.

John Thornton