On Tue, 22 Jan 2008, Michael Pollak wrote:
[After Doug said:]
>> In the 21 years I've been doing this stuff I've noticed that when I get
>> calls about a financial melodrama it's closer to the end than the
>> beginning. Maybe it's different this time.
>
> I've always been a big fan of this indicator. But IIRC, in the past, hasn't
> this always been about calling a bottom in the stock market? I don't
> remember it pointing to the trough of a recession or recession-like object.
And I should point out that in the short term, it did call the local bottom -- five days of a falling stock became a surprising rally the day Doug posted.
Which is the kind of realm in which this indicator makes sense. Reporters calling him indicates that anxiety about the market has spread beyond market insiders into the wide consciousness, has become a "story," and has stayed a story long enough for reporters to feel they need to say something new, which means just about everyone has heard it. And that's exactly the kind of thing that motivates a rally like that -- the feeling that if housewives are saying something about the market, the opposite must be true.
Michael