[lbo-talk] recession severity

shag shag at cleandraws.com
Thu Jan 24 15:38:36 PST 2008


At 03:10 PM 1/24/2008, Doug Henwood wrote:


>On Jan 24, 2008, at 2:57 PM, Steven L. Robinson wrote:
>
> > Would it be fair to say, though, that in some areas heavily
> > dependent on construction spending - e.g. Southern California -
> > that the recession might be steeper than nationally? For an
> > unemployed construction worker or mortgage consultant it would
> > certainly FEEL like a steep recession.
>
>For sure. Nor was there any boom in the midwest - instead, much of
>that region has been enduring the evisceration of the domestic auto
>industry. As the Wall Street pundits sometimes say, it's a market of
>stocks, not a stock market. Same for sectors and regions in a
>national economy.
>
>Doug

yeah. I remember when we were talking about this a few months ago and I started rattling off, in my head, all the people I knew that were once struggling and, because of all the real estate bubble related spending, managed to achieve a nice lifestyle. E.g., my one neighbor, once on disability from a construction accident raised his boys on disability and foodstamps and drug dealing. Got busted, but was allowed to work off his punishment b/c he was sole support of three boys. I remember helping him get a resume together because he'd managed to get some voc-ed in CAD. Long story short, he lives in a beautiful beach home with his kids now, and was making money hand over fist in construction. Another acquaintance, got into real estate. Others in the title business.

These folks, once economically marginal... well, as long as they saved some money, they'll be ok, though they'll probably be out of work. There are some folks I've met at work -- we have a small division within the company that is part of the real estate biz -- who have seen their bonus/commission incomes plummet to the point of having to take extra jobs. 275 others were laid off, so there incomes def. plummeted.

Questions: Weren't the recessions you mention experienced unevenly -- with people in certain regions feeling it a lot worse. E.g., Syracuse NY was dismal, with something like 10k people moving out of the area during the 90s. Rochest, OTOH, was doing fine because it was a major center for the health care industry IIRC.

When I talk about growing up in a place like Flint, even people who were adults in that era, if they were in another region, have no idea that it was that bad for some folks.

http://cleandraws.com Wear Clean Draws ('coz there's 5 million ways to kill a CEO)



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