[lbo-talk] the madness of traders

[Doug Henwood]

So tomorrow morning brings the monthly U.S. employment report, the  
data release that moves the markets more than any other. The  
consensus as of yesterday was something like a loss of 60,000 jobs.  
ADP, the payroll processor, puts out an estimate based on the number  
of checks they print that has a good historical record of predicting  
the number, but hasn't worked so well in real time lately. This  
morning they said the number would be -79,000. Everything in the  
market moves on deviations from what's expected, so that brought down  
the consensus some. But the geniuses in the bond market have a  
different idea. From a report by Briefing.com:


> Bonds continue to try and capitalize on the weak jobs outlook, with  
> Credit Suisse noting that the ADP guess has been "higher by 85K on  
> average so far this year" (Bloomberg), leaving the potential for  
> the payrolls on synthetic Fri (Thurs) to be in the -130K/-150K  
> range.  Players are braced for a number near that level and,  
> unfortunately for bond bulls, anything short of that will be  
> considered a "positive" (read bond negative).