> The potential for down 140-150k
> ADP private payrolls sagged 79,000 in June (consensus was
> -20,000). Considering that this metric has overstated private
> payrolls in the NFP report by an average of 93,000 so far this
> year, it would mean that we could actually see a 172,000 negative
> print on private payrolls if we took this at face value. Throw in
> an average of +20,000 to +30,000 for government jobs (though we
> think that state payrolls could take a hit this month) and you're
> talking about the potential for down 140,000-to-150,000. We are
> sticking to our -110,000 call, which was way out of consensus until
> yesterday -but there is a risk that the headline will be weaker.
> In any event, there is a risk we will see the first 100,000+
> decline in nonfarm payrolls since March 2003.