[A third party estimate of 6% in July usually becomes 0.6% in November, so this should probably be taken with a tablespoon of salt. But it's got as least much right to mold our mood as the ravings of Rove.]
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1523
Released: July 06, 2008
Zogby Poll: Building Mo-bama! Democrat Leads McCain in Electoral
College Tally, 273-160
The Democrat also leads 44% to 38% in the nationwide horserace test as
Libertarian Bob Barr wins 6%
UTICA, New York As the race for President passes the Independence Day
holiday and heads toward the dog days of summer, Sen. Barack Obama
holds a 44% to 38% lead over Sen. John McCain in the horserace contest,
but also leads by a substantial margin in a state-by-state Electoral
College tally, a new Zogby Interactive poll shows.
The extensive national poll of of 46,274 likely voters also shows
Libertarian candidate and former Congressman Bob Barr wins 6% support,
eating into McCains needed conservative base of support.
The online survey was conducted from June 11-30, 2008. It carries a
margin of error of 0.5 percentage points. After nearly a decade in
development, the Zogby Interactive survey on a state level was
remarkably accurate in the 2006 midterm elections. In 18 U.S. Senate
elections polled two years ago, the Zogby online survey correctly
identified the winner of 17 of 18 races, and in the 18th race in
Missouri, it was still within the margin of error, though it had
Republican Jim Talent winning (he was defeated narrowly by Democrat
Claire McCaskill).
Zogbys Electoral College Count 7-7-2008
Obama 273
McCain 160
Undecided 105
This latest extensive survey of all 50 states reveals that while Obama
holds a narrow lead in the national preference test, he holds a
substantial advantage right now in the Electoral College. Using this
survey - and an average of other public state polls in certain states
to corroborate the Zogby results Zogby calculates that Obama leads
McCain, 273-160. A total of 11 states with 105 electoral votes are
within the margin of error and therefore too close to call. A candidate
needs 270 to be elected President.
Neither Obama nor McCain breaks a 50% favorable rating. Obama is viewed
as very or somewhat favorable by 49.7%. For McCain, that number is
43.2%.
Pollster John Zogby: Obama is in the drivers seat right now, especially
where it really counts - in the electoral votes. Bob Barr could really
hurt McCains chances. McCain cant afford the level of slippage to Barr
we found among conservatives in this polling. While there has been
plenty of talk about Obamas recent emphasis on his centrist positions,
he can get away with it during these dog days of the campaign as McCain
finds himself still trying to shore up the conservative base. McCain
will have to move to the center because right now Obama is clobbering
him among independents. But there is the rub for McCain: Bob Barr has
some juice among conservatives and is hurting him in several states.
Bob Barr receives the support of 7% of voters who identify themselves
as conservative or very conservative voters. Barr gets 43% of
libertarians and 11% of independents. McCains support among
conservatives is 74%. On the left, Ralph Nader gets less than 2%
nationally.
Obama has the support of 83% of Democrats, while McCain gets 75% of
Republicans.
Independents break 39% for Obama, compared with 31% who support McCain.
For white voters, race doesn't appear to be playing a significant
factor. McCain leads Obama, 43%-39%, with Barr at 6%. Among black
voters, Obama wins the vast majority of support.
For a complete methodological statement on this survey, please visit:
http://www.zogby.com/methodology/readmeth.dbm?ID=1318
(7/6/2008)