[lbo-talk] Nicolas Stern's What Is To Be Done on climate change

[John Thornton]

Michael Pollak forwarded:
>
> Stern's paper (Key Elements of a Global Deal on Climate Change) is at:
> www.lse.ac.uk/collections/granthamInstitute
>
> Why obstacles to a deal on climate are mountainous
> By Martin Wolf
>
> Professor Nicholas Stern of the London School of Economics, author of 
> the UK government's 2006 report on climate change, has analysed the 
> issues in an interesting recent paper.  He starts from a few simple 
> propositions: first, the concentration of carbon dioxide equivalent in 
> the atmosphere is now 430 parts per million and rising at the rate of 
> two parts per million a year; second, the aim should be to stabilise 
> concentrations at between 450 and 500 parts per million; finally, to 
> achieve this, global emissions of greenhouse gas equivalents must peak 
> in the next 15 years and fall by at least 50 per cent, relative to 
> 1990 levels (about 90 per cent of 2005 levels), by 2050, when global 
> average emissions per head must be as low as two tonnes per head.

450 to 500 ppm CO2e!
Is he nuts?
Pre-industrial levels were ~280 ppm CO2e.
A few thousand years ago they were ~250 ppm CO2e.
The aim should be to stabilize at ~350 to 375 ppm CO2e, not 450 ppm.
We're already at 387 ppm CO2.
Incidentally we reached 455 ppm CO2e in 2005 so we're definitely not 
only 430 ppm CO2e currently.
I've seen the 450 ppm thrown around as a possible point at which to 
stabilize but that level is still taking a big gamble.

John Thornton