On Jul 23, 2008, at 8:26 PM, Cseniornyc at aol.com wrote:
> Among a large plethora of analysts, recently Nouriel Roubini,a sharp
> rightwingish economist, has predicted that the US and global
> economy is heading
> toward serious recession. Doug Henwood's answer to this view was:
> "Again, maybe so, but there's no evidence that this is happening yet.
> It will be very interesting if the oil bubble bursts, too. "
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> This is a very strange comment by a keen observer like Henwood
> because
> there is a strong consensus among analysts and forecasters that all
> the indicators
> of a serious recession are swirling around us. The economy has lost
> jobs for
> four months in a row, which has never happened without a recession.
> Consumer
> confidence has dropped to a 28 year low – a level not seen since
> Jimmy
> Carter was president. Home foreclosure filings are up 65 percent
> over last year.
> And now commercial real estate prices are heading south, dropping
> 6.2 percent
> in the first quarter.
> Other "evidence": the Case-Shiller index shows that average home
> prices are
> down 17% and still pushing down. Yesterday the Conference Board
> announced all
> major economic indicators are down.
But not by much.
There is no consensus among forecasters that there's going to be a serious recession. Consensus forecasts on GDP are weakly positive for this year and next. The leading indicators are negative, but mildly so. Even Roubini doesn't expect armageddon - I personally heard him say this to the Council on Foreign Relations. Like I say, it could get worse, but given all the blows the U.S. economy has taken, you'd think that GDP was running at -2%, and not around 0%.
Doug