[lbo-talk] race & the U.S. election

Mike Ballard swillsqueal at yahoo.com.au
Sun Jun 22 11:54:54 PDT 2008


Let's not forget the "Bradley effect".

*********************************

The term Bradley effect or Wilder effect refers to an explanation advanced as the possible cause of a phenomenon which has led to inaccurate voter opinion polls in some American political campaigns between a white candidate and a non-white candidate.[1][2][3] Specifically, there have been instances in which such elections have seen the non-white candidate significantly underperform with respect to the results predicted by pre-election polls. Researchers who have studied the issue theorize that some white voters gave inaccurate polling responses because of a fear that by stating their true preference, they might appear to others to be racially prejudiced.

The theory suggests that statistically significant numbers of white voters tell pollsters in advance of an election that they are either undecided, or likely to vote for the non-white candidate, but that those voters exhibit a different behavior when actually casting their ballots. White voters who said that they were undecided break in statistically large numbers toward the white candidate, and many of the white voters who said that they were likely to vote for the non-white candidate ultimately cast their ballot for the white candidate. This reluctance to give accurate polling answers has sometimes extended to post-election exit polls as well.

full: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect

Mike B)

The carbon atoms in your body were forged inside a star somewhere, billions of years ago. http://www.myspace.com/ballardoso

Get the name you always wanted with the new y7mail email address. www.yahoo7.com.au/mail



More information about the lbo-talk mailing list