On May 6, 2008, at 4:46 PM, Michael Pollak wrote:
> On Tue, 6 May 2008, Doug Henwood wrote:
>
>> I told Bartels, after he was on my radio show, that his work made me
>> despair of the possibilities for self-rule.
>
> You shouldn't though, at least not on this basis.
My favorite:
[from Aachen and Bartels, "Blind Retrospection," 2004]
> Droughts and Floods, 1896-2000
>
> Having examined one especially colorful instance of blind
> retrospection [a series of shark attacks in NJ in 1916 cost Wilson
> votes], we turn in this section to a broader analysis covering the
> entire continental United States and the entire 20th century. That
> analysis focuses on electoral responses to climatic conditions—in
> particular, to droughts and floods— in presidential elections.
> Using data on drought and flood conditions in 48 states throughout
> the century, we show that voters do indeed punish the incumbent
> party at the polls for presiding over bad weather.