> There has been no such trend in the national polls. It's been very
> close for months. In fact, Obama's lead in Gallup's latest tracking
> poll is smaller than it was three weeks ago.
No, no. I don't mean the trend in the polls. As I said, they are noisy. People overreact to news in the short run. I mean the trend in the overall political conditions. That's why I refer people to the markets, where people's expectations are more stable. I find signs of this trend everywhere. Just recently, from this very list, the decision of the International Longshore and Warehouse Union to call a strike against the war, against their own union bureaucracy and the judges. It seems to me that, overall (not always), Obama was better positioned to take advantage of this trend than Hillary. And, also, to some extent, he's been reading the trend better on the spot.
A quick example, the pundits said recently that the economy is trumping the war as a concern in middle America (whatever that may mean). So, they concluded, Clinton is in a better position to advance. Well, Obama may have to slightly adjust his speech. But he's been connecting the war with the economy -- and that's the way to go. If this trend asserts itself, McCain is in deep.