On May 9, 2008, at 2:58 PM, Julio Huato wrote:
> Doug wrote:
>
>>> quantitative change mutates into a qualitative leap
>>
>> Latest average of the national polls from RCP, vs. McCain:
>
> Please read my previous post on this. And, again, nothing wrong with
> following the day-by-day polls. We just need to be somewhat
> circumspect about the inferences.
Yeah. I know about daily polls. As I've said every pres election for the last two or three now, you can reliably predict the results with just two variables: the president's approval rating and the growth in real disposable income the spring before the election. And those point to a big Dem victory in November. The intervening polls matter not at all. I just brought them up to fact-check the wild claims about the specialness of the Magic Guy.
Doug