On Fri, 9 May 2008 15:49:43 -0400 Doug Henwood <dhenwood at panix.com>
writes:
>
> On May 9, 2008, at 2:58 PM, Julio Huato wrote:
> > Doug wrote:
> >
> >>> quantitative change mutates into a qualitative leap
> >>
> >> Latest average of the national polls from RCP, vs. McCain:
> >
> > Please read my previous post on this. And, again, nothing wrong
> with
> > following the day-by-day polls. We just need to be somewhat
> > circumspect about the inferences.
>
> Yeah. I know about daily polls. As I've said every pres election for
>
> the last two or three now, you can reliably predict the results with
>
> just two variables: the president's approval rating and the growth
> in
> real disposable income the spring before the election. And those
> point to a big Dem victory in November. The intervening polls matter
>
> not at all. I just brought them up to fact-check the wild claims
> about the specialness of the Magic Guy.
I agree with Doug on this matter. There are at least several econometric models out there that have to be fairly reliable in predicting presidential election results. While I would never underestimate the ability of the Democrats to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, I would say that if the economy keeps sinking like it has been, they are likely to score a blowout in November against the Republicans. As I have said before, under such circumstances, if the Dems were to nominate even a dead dog for president, the mutt would take the White House. That is one reason, among many, why I have difficulty understanding otherwise smart and knowledgeable progressives can work themselves in such a tether over the comparative merits of Obama versus Clinton. I think that either one of them can beat McCain, and either one of them as president would prove to be a great disappointment to their progressive supporters. Thus, I can't understand people who go gaga over Obama, and I can't understand how an ordinarily very smart guy like Andrew Austin can get himself worked up on behalf of Hilary versus Obama on his Freedom and Reason blog at: http://wwsword.blogspot.com/
Jim F/
>
> Doug
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