[lbo-talk] if the economy keeps sinking, even a dead dog Dem can win

Charles Brown charlesb at cncl.ci.detroit.mi.us
Fri May 9 17:07:26 PDT 2008


I would say that if the economy keeps sinking like it has been, they are likely to score a blowout in November against the Republicans. As I have said before, under such circumstances, if the Dems were to nominate even a dead dog for president, the mutt would take the White House

Clinton, Obama Top McCain on Handling the Economy, Poll Shows By Catherine Dodge May 10 (Bloomberg) -- Democrats _Hillary Clinton_ (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Hillary+Clinton&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output

=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1)

and _Barack Obama_ (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Barack

get higher marks than Republican _John McCain_ (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=John+McCain&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&

filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1) from voters on handling the U.S. economy, which Americans now consider the nation's top issue. A Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times survey shows Clinton is favored by 32 percent of registered voters as the presidential candidate best equipped to manage the

economy, followed by Obama at 26 percent and McCain with 23 percent. Even among those making more than $100,000 a year, Clinton has a slight lead over McCain. Overall, 56 percent of registered voters choose the economy as the biggest problem facing the candidates. Voters across all income levels, age groups and party affiliations agree it is more pressing than the war in Iraq, health care, illegal immigration and other issues. ``This is a warning shot for McCain that he really needs to step up his game on talking about the economy,'' says _Susan Pinkus_ (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Susan Pinkus&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF- 8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1) , the Los Angeles Times polling director. ``The economy is more than just a national concern, it is affecting people's pocketbooks, and when that happens there is a sea change.'' The poll of 2,208 adults nationwide, of which 1,986 are registered voters, was conducted May 1-8, and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Among all respondents, 78 percent say the country is in a recession, up from 61 percent in February. Just 17 percent say the U.S. isn't in a recession, and almost a quarter say the country is in a serious recession. `Recessionary Pressures' Poll respondent Susan Straus, a 66-year-old retired attorney who lives in Washington, is among those who think the U.S. is in a serious downturn.

``The housing market is the real signal that the ordinary citizen is facing recessionary pressures,'' she says. Straus says Clinton would be best able to tackle the economy because ``she understands the rough-and-tumble nature of the Republican Party that she has to

deal with to build a compromise.'' Reflecting those economic concerns, in hypothetical head-to- head matchups, both Democrats beat McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee, among registered voters in a general election. Clinton, a New York senator, tops McCain, an Arizona senator, 47 percent to 38 percent. Obama, an Illinois senator, wins 46 percent to 40 percent.

Clinton fares slightly better among Democrats than does Obama. Fifteen

percent of Democrats would support McCain in the election if their nominee were Obama, compared with 9 percent who would back McCain if Clinton were the nominee. Obama virtually ties McCain among independent voters, winning 40 percent, while Clinton falls behind in a matchup with McCain. Angst Over Economy Concern over the economy has mounted since December, when just 25 percent of respondents picked it as the top issue and 32 percent cited Iraq as the

leading priority. The statistics bear out voters' anxiety. The economy grew at a 0.6 percent annual rate over the last two quarters, the slowest pace since the 2001

recession. Payrolls shrank by 20,000 workers last month, following an 81,000 drop in March, according to government figures. At the same time, Americans are coping with rising prices for food and gasoline and a weakening real estate market. Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy, grew at the slowest pace in the first three months of this year since the second quarter of 2001. Economists blame falling home values, tighter lending

standards and record gas prices for the slowdown. McCain and Economy ``We just need somebody who has fresh ideas, and the other candidates keep rehashing the same ideas,'' says Michelle Liu, 38, of Winnetka, Illinois, an independent voter who picked Obama as best on the economy. ``McCain has said in the past that he doesn't feel he's as good on the

economy, and that doesn't give me a lot of hope for him,'' Liu says. More than three-quarters of respondents say the country is heading in the wrong direction, up from 63 percent at the start of the year. The last time more

than 70 percent of respondents said that was in 1992. Among respondents with more than $100,000 in annual household income, 68 percent said the country is on the wrong track. Those with annual income under $60,000 had the highest levels of dissatisfaction, with more than eight in 10 saying the U.S. is going in the wrong direction. There is a partisan divide in the way people view the country. Slightly more than half of Republicans say the U.S. is headed the wrong way, compared with 87 percent of Democrats.

By Catherine Dodge May 10 (Bloomberg) -- Democrats _Hillary Clinton_ (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Hillary+Clinton&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output

=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1)

and _Barack Obama_ (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Barack Obama&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8 &oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1) get higher marks than Republican _John McCain_ (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=John+McCain&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8&

filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1) from voters on handling the U.S. economy, which Americans now consider the nation's top issue. A Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times survey shows Clinton is favored by 32 percent of registered voters as the presidential candidate best equipped to manage the

economy, followed by Obama at 26 percent and McCain with 23 percent. Even among those making more than $100,000 a year, Clinton has a slight lead over McCain. Overall, 56 percent of registered voters choose the economy as the biggest problem facing the candidates. Voters across all income levels, age groups and party affiliations agree it is more pressing than the war in Iraq, health care, illegal immigration and other issues. ``This is a warning shot for McCain that he really needs to step up his game on talking about the economy,'' says _Susan Pinkus_ (http://search.bloomberg.com/search?q=Susan Pinkus&site=wnews&client=wnews&proxystylesheet=wnews&output=xml_no_dtd&ie=UTF- 8&oe=UTF-8&filter=p&getfields=wnnis&sort=date:D:S:d1) , the Los Angeles Times polling director. ``The economy is more than just a national concern, it is affecting people's pocketbooks, and when that happens there is a sea change.'' The poll of 2,208 adults nationwide, of which 1,986 are registered voters, was conducted May 1-8, and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Among all respondents, 78 percent say the country is in a recession, up from 61 percent in February. Just 17 percent say the U.S. isn't in a recession, and almost a quarter say the country is in a serious recession. `Recessionary Pressures' Poll respondent Susan Straus, a 66-year-old retired attorney who lives in Washington, is among those who think the U.S. is in a serious downturn.

``The housing market is the real signal that the ordinary citizen is facing recessionary pressures,'' she says. Straus says Clinton would be best able to tackle the economy because ``she understands the rough-and-tumble nature of the Republican Party that she has to

deal with to build a compromise.'' Reflecting those economic concerns, in hypothetical head-to- head matchups, both Democrats beat McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee, among registered voters in a general election. Clinton, a New York senator, tops McCain, an Arizona senator, 47 percent to 38 percent. Obama, an Illinois senator, wins 46 percent to 40 percent.

Clinton fares slightly better among Democrats than does Obama. Fifteen

percent of Democrats would support McCain in the election if their nominee were Obama, compared with 9 percent who would back McCain if Clinton were the nominee. Obama virtually ties McCain among independent voters, winning 40 percent, while Clinton falls behind in a matchup with McCain. Angst Over Economy Concern over the economy has mounted since December, when just 25 percent of respondents picked it as the top issue and 32 percent cited Iraq as the

leading priority. The statistics bear out voters' anxiety. The economy grew at a 0.6 percent annual rate over the last two quarters, the slowest pace since the 2001

recession. Payrolls shrank by 20,000 workers last month, following an 81,000 drop in March, according to government figures. At the same time, Americans are coping with rising prices for food and gasoline and a weakening real estate market. Consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy, grew at the slowest pace in the first three months of this year since the second quarter of 2001. Economists blame falling home values, tighter lending

standards and record gas prices for the slowdown. McCain and Economy ``We just need somebody who has fresh ideas, and the other candidates keep rehashing the same ideas,'' says Michelle Liu, 38, of Winnetka, Illinois, an independent voter who picked Obama as best on the economy. ``McCain has said in the past that he doesn't feel he's as good on the

economy, and that doesn't give me a lot of hope for him,'' Liu says. More than three-quarters of respondents say the country is heading in the wrong direction, up from 63 percent at the start of the year. The last time more

than 70 percent of respondents said that was in 1992. Among respondents with more than $100,000 in annual household income, 68 percent said the country is on the wrong track. Those with annual income under $60,000 had the highest levels of dissatisfaction, with more than eight in 10 saying the U.S. is going in the wrong direction. There is a partisan divide in the way people view the country. Slightly more than half of Republicans say the U.S. is headed the wrong way, compared with 87 percent of Democrats.

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