[lbo-talk] John Fund is scared

Doug Henwood DHENWOOD at PANIX.COM
Wed May 14 12:08:24 PDT 2008


OpinionJournal.com

Political Diary

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Another Big GOP Loss in the Deep South

Everyone knows that Barack Obama has a problem attracting white, working-class voters. Last night in West Virginia, Hillary Clinton swept every county in the state on her way to a crushing victory over her Democratic rival.

But what if Republican Congressional candidates now have a similar problem? Last night, Republicans lost their third special election in a row in districts they had easily carried in the 2004 presidential election. Should the voting patterns found in those districts be repeated in November, it would be a disaster for the GOP.

Democrats called their capture last night of a northern Mississippi House seat "a thunderbolt." They weren't exaggerating. The district voted 61% for President Bush just four years ago. But Democrat Travis Childers was able to run as a conservative and dodge GOP attempts to link him to Mr. Obama and the latter's relationship with the Rev. Jeremiah Wright. Mr. Childers defeated Republican Greg Davis by 54% to 46%.

The Republican vote didn't collapse everywhere. In DeSoto County, an upscale Memphis suburban area where Mr. Davis has been a mayor, he won 75% of the vote -- an improvement on Mr. Bush's 2004 performance. But DeSoto cast only one-sixth of the district's votes, with much of the rest cast in rural counties.

It was there that Mr. Childers cleaned up. Take Lee County, which was named after Robert E. Lee and where Elvis Presley was born. President Bush won 66% of the vote in 2004, reflecting solid GOP dominance of white, working-class voters in a county where a quarter of the population is black. In this year's special election, Mr. Davis won only 42%. The Republicans lost over a third of their support from just four years ago.

Obviously, some of this dismal performance can be laid off to factors unique to the special election. Voter turnout was low, and Republicans often do better in general elections when it's higher. Mr. Childers and Mr. Davis appeared on the special election ballot without their party designations, a factor which likely hurt the Republican. Indeed, Mr. Davis has a chance to come back and unseat Mr. Childers in the fall.

But that is cold comfort to national Republicans, who spent over $1.2 million in a futile effort to hold the seat. Now they must worry that Roger Wicker, whose appointment to the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Trent Lott opened up the district in yesterday's race, could himself be vulnerable to a challenge from former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove in the fall. Even more disturbing will be all the business and other contributors who are likely now to hedge their political bets. Many will conclude, rightly or wrongly, that Republicans face a rout in the fall and will direct even more of their donations to Democrats who now seem certain to continue to control both houses.

-- John Fund



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