--- Doug Henwood <dhenwood at panix.com> wrote:
> Electoral college map from Karl Rove & Co.:
>
>
<http://a.abcnews.go.com/images/Politics/McCainClintonObama051608.pdf>
>
> Bottom line: Hillary beats McCain; Obama loses.
[WS:] The usual caveat applies: if Obama is such a good deal for the Repugs, why are they telling us about it right now?
I woul dbe more inclined to think that either Obama or Clinton will beat McCain in November for teh following reasons:
1. McCain is an old coot and thus unlikely to inspire younger voters who turn up in greater numbers;
2. McCain is decidedly less charismatic than Obama or Clinon, and charisma counts quite a bit;
3. The economy is heading south and will countinue on that course for some time, and that usually is bad news for the political party currently holding the WH;
4. McCain has little or at the most lukewarm support among hardcore conservatives , so their turnout in November election will probably wane a bit;
5. Obama and Clinton have a better name recognition than McCain thanks to highly contested primaries that grabbed all media attention.
Of course, we should never underestimate the Democrat capacity of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
McCain has a chance if one of the following happens:
1. After losing Democratic nomination, Clinton runs as an Independent
2. Ralph Nader comes out of hiding and runs as a Green
3. Jeremiah Wright maintains high profile (if Obama gets the nomination);
4. Repugs pull an October surprise in the form of a staged "terrorist" attack;
5. Repugs run a particularly vile campaign evoking the most debased racist or sexist streotypes (depending who runs);
6. The Democrat candidate does or says something really stupid (remember the "Monkey Business" affair http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monkey_Business_%28yacht%29.
Wojtek