On Sat, 8 Nov 2008, shag wrote:
> What you describe doesn't seem like an organizational structure holding
> Obama's feet to the fire.
No, of course not. I'm saying there's no reason to think it's not a functional equivalent.
But we have to be clear on what we're talking about having a functional equivalent for. The ideal type of an electoral base held to a party by an organization is the union movement. Have they done a lot of holding to the fire over the last 30 years at the presidential level? When they are less enthusiastic, their GOTV operations are less active. But their money is about the same and it was relatively less important to the overall effort.
I honestly don't see why this new style electoral base should be any less effective as a governor. I'm not saying it will greatly constrain the Obama adminstration. I'm just saying I'm not at all convinced it will constrain it any less. If you depress these people, they'll spontaneously give less and work less. And I daresay they will be even more mood sensitive precisely their so flitting and because the second time will never be as exciting as the first.
But we'll see in four years. No one's paying me to predict it ahead of time. I'm content to find out.
Michael