[lbo-talk] Financial collapse or financial consolidation?

moominek at aol.com moominek at aol.com
Sat Oct 4 07:12:48 PDT 2008


Doug asked rhetorically:


>The gov of Deutschland isn't big enough to recap Deutsche Bank either,
is it?

What a silly question. The Deutsche Bank survived - unlike the other other big german commercial banks - the severe banking crisis of 1931 with only a minor public stake. They survived the defeat of Hitler and the complete bankruptcy of the german state called "currency reform of 1948" - and came back since then.

OK, the balance sheed of the Deutsche Bank is long: 1 990, 74 billion Euro (30.06.2008, figures US-style: 1 Billion = 1 000 000 000), liabilities 1.957, 068 billion Euro. This is more than the whole of public debt (all levels, federal, laender, communal) of roughly 1.500, billion Euro (= 62 % of GDP). The liabilities of the DB are about 80% of GDP. To compare US-figures you would have to summ up the data (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/ or something more detailed) for the different banking corporations. Would the US-government be able to recap JP Morgan, if all JP Morgan Assets = 0 ?

And it is not every time meaningfull to relate flow (GDP) and stock magnitudes (public/private debt).

Take another stock measure for comparison, the foreign investment position: After the first costs of the unification already occured, in 1991, the foreign investment position of Germany was positive with 250 billion Euro. Over the next years the burden of the newly acquired provinces in th e East brought this down to more or less zero, 7,4 billion Euro in 1998. But they won the class fights of the nineties and the come back started soon: In 2004 the preunification level was reached, and then came the push of the EU-eastwards enlargement für the german economy. Now the foreign investment position is on a previously unknown level of about 700 billion Euro, one trillion Dollar. Additionaly the german austerity policy worked (for them), bringing down the new debt of the public sector to about zero in 2007. There is room for manoeuvre.

The french situation is very different. They had no much gains from the EU-enlargement and are in real trouble. That's why there is some tension. But most of the time since 1983 the french government had to follow the german (Bundesbank)- economic course.

Sebastian -- www.hausderdemokratie.de www.lunapark21.net www.ostblog.de

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