>
> It is obvious that this election was closing fast. Yet, Bradley's win
> was projected by the most prominent public pollster in the state,
> Mervin Field, who boasted on Election Day that Tom Bradley would
> defeat George Deukmejian, "making the Los Angeles mayor the first
> elected black governor in American history" (UPI 11-3-82). The reason
> for Field's enthusiasm was that his last weekend polling showed a
> 7-point margin for Bradley, but this was totally at variance from the
> Tarrance and Associates internal tracking results.
Based on research on conformity, this actually makes a lot of sense. People are more likely to conform to social norms when their behavior is public. Thus people are more likely to challenge racist social norms when they're casting a private vote rather than when they're stating a voting preference to a pollster.
Miles