The Numbers A Run at the Latest Data from ABC's Poobah of Polling, Gary Langer
Barack Obama’s lead over John McCain has reignited debate about the alleged “Bradley effect” – the notion that, in polls, white people lie about voting for a black candidate. It remains, at best, what I called it nine months ago: a theory in search of data.
The Bradley effect and its variants (Wilder effect, Dinkins effect), attempt to explain why the level of support for white candidates was understated, or for black candidates was overstated, in pre-election polls in six biracial contests from 1982 to 1992. That's right - anywhere from 16 to 26 years ago.
Two problems: There are, in fact, beaucoups reasons beyond lying that those polls could have been wrong. And there have been plenty of accurate polls in such contests since.
...