[lbo-talk] Fwd: ABC News/Washington Post Poll: After the Conventions

Michael Pollak mpollak at panix.com
Tue Sep 9 14:17:50 PDT 2008



> also, i think this offers some valuable context about the gender gap as
> well:
>
> http://www.gallup.com/poll/109456/Gender-Gap-Among-White-Voters-Bigger-Now-Than-2004.aspx
>
> http://www.now.org/issues/election/elections2004/041112womensvote.html

That's actually quite salutory. It's good to remember that the gender gap has always included all women, not just white women -- and of course non-white women vote more Democratic.

So you basically refuted my appallment. Even if this held up as given on election day, it wouldn't reverse the gender gap. Women would still come out in exactly the same historical zone (between 4-11% more Dem). And the same gap would presumably also be maintined on issues.

This is really finally as much or more a white people stat as a gender stat. Obama has up until now done as well or better than Kerry among whites, and better among non-whites. If the choice of Palin turned that around, it would be bad thing. But the more I think about it, the more I think this will turn out to be a case of heat lightening.

Michael



More information about the lbo-talk mailing list