By Andrew Osborn The Wall Street Journal September 17, 2008
Moscow -- Ukraine's pro-Western coalition government formally collapsed, deepening a political crisis that has clouded the country's prospects of joining the NATO military alliance.
President Viktor Yushchenko and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko worked together in an "Orange" coalition for nine fractious months, but their alliance gradually unraveled, not for the first time, faltering on serious policy and personality differences.
Their failure to patch up differences after a 10-day cooling-off period came as Mr. Yushchenko -- whose supporters have charged Ms. Tymoshenko with collaborating with Moscow -- accused Russia of trying to destabilize Ukraine
"For some of our partners, instability in Ukraine is like bread and butter," he said in an Associated Press interview, suggesting Moscow was stirring up separatists on the volatile Crimean Peninsula, where Russia's Black Sea Fleet is based.
He said Ukraine wouldn't allow itself to be drawn into a war in the way he said Georgia had last month when Russian troops responded to a Georgian attack on South Ossetia by occupying large swaths of its territory.
"Will they [Russia] repeat the Georgian scenario?" he asked. "For sure, no."
The political turmoil sets the stage for a month of intense talks during which a new coalition must be formed. Failing that, the president has the right but not the obligation to call parliamentary elections. He has said he will call the vote, though opponents say he is bluffing, pointing to his dwindling popular support.
Russia's war against Georgia in August stoked tensions inside the Ukrainian government, driving a wedge between Mr. Yushchenko and Ms. Tymoshenko. Mr. Yushchenko favored tougher rhetoric and more immediate action, including against Russia's Black Sea Fleet. Ms. Tymoshenko backed a more cautious approach so as not to antagonize Russia, a key trading partner, her supporters say.
Some analysts say both seized the opportunity of the war to distance themselves from each other ahead of a 2010 presidential election. The other major candidate is likely to be Viktor Yanukovych, leader of the Russia-friendly Party of the Regions. Ms. Tymoshenko's Byut party teamed up with Mr. Yanukovych's party this month to vote for legislation that would seriously diminish presidential powers, infuriating Mr. Yushchenko, who accused his onetime ally of staging a "coup." He suggested she was behaving like a Kremlin agent. In an interview Tuesday, Hryorii Nemyria, a deputy prime minister and close Tymoshenko ally, called that "absurd."
The political turmoil appears certain to further cloud Ukraine's prospects of joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization or of receiving a Membership Action Plan at an alliance meeting in December, an important first step.
Ukraine's chances are already complicated by the fact it hosts a Russian naval base and because Russian officials have made clear Moscow would be strongly opposed to NATO membership for Ukraine. The split in what has been a pro-Western coalition is likely to make things even harder.
Mr. Nemyria said Mr. Yushchenko and Ms. Tymoshenko had real differences on NATO membership.
"Where they differ is that the prime minister [Ms. Tymoshenko] is centered on delivery and on bridging the gap between rhetoric and reality," he said. "The president's speeches are sometimes too optimistic about the timeline, raising expectations."
The U.S. has been bullish about Ukraine joining NATO. But France and Germany -- and other European members dependent on Moscow for energy supplies -- are more cautious, and often struggle to find a common position on Russia.
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