[lbo-talk] Palin bounce all a bad dream?

Michael Pollak mpollak at panix.com
Wed Sep 17 22:22:43 PDT 2008


http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/18/us/politics/18poll.html

<begin excerpt>

Polls taken after the Republican convention suggested that Mr. McCain

had enjoyed a surge of support -- particularly among white women after

his selection of Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska as his running mate -- but

the latest poll indicates "the Palin effect" was, at least so far, a

limited burst of interest. The contest appeared to be roughly where it

was before the two conventions and before the vice-presidential

selections: Mr. Obama had the support of 48 percent of registered

voters, compared with 43 percent for Mr. McCain, a difference within

the poll's margin of sampling error, and statistically unchanged from

the tally in the last New York Times/CBS News poll, in mid-August.

<snip>

But the Times/CBS News poll suggested that Ms. Palin's selection has,

to date, helped Mr. McCain only among Republican base voters; there was

no evidence of significantly increased support for him among women in

general. White women were evenly divided between Mr. McCain and Mr.

Obama; before the conventions, Mr. McCain led Mr. Obama among white

women, 44 percent to 37 percent.

By contrast, at this point in the 2004 campaign, President Bush was

leading Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts, the Democratic challenger,

by 56 percent to 37 percent among white women.

<end excerpt>

Full pdf of results:

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/packages/pdf/politics/20080918_POLL.pdf

CBS/NYT Polls over time:

http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/president/whos-ahead/polling/index.html#US_22

Michael



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