http://www.thenation.com/blogs/dreyfuss/501647/feint_to_exit
11/30/2009 The Nation blog
Feint to Exit? Robert Dreyfuss
What's tragic about President Obama's decision to dispatch tens of
thousands of additional troops to Afghanistan is that even the
president knows, I am sure, that escalation won't work. But the
president is playing it safe, adding forces while broadly describing a
medium-term exit strategy. Rather than throw the tank into reverse, the
ever-cautious, politically careful Obama is executing a long,
drawn-out, 180-degree turn that will probably take two or three years
to execute.
Contrary to some analysts on the left who see Obama's plan as a
Vietnam-style escalation, I see it as an unfortunate escalation feint
while looking to the exit. Unfortunate, because a lot of Afghans (and
quite a few Americans) will die in the process.
Briefed in advance about Obama's Tuesday night address, the New York
Times reports today:
"President Obama plans to lay out a time frame for winding down the
American involvement in the war in Afghanistan when he announces his
decision this week to send more forces, senior administration
officials said Sunday."
Adds the paper:
"The officials would not disclose the time frame. But they said it
would not be tied to particular conditions on the ground nor would
it be as firm as the current schedule for withdrawing troops in
Iraq, where Mr. Obama has committed to withdrawing most combat units
by August and all forces by the end of 2011."
In other words, Obama's exit timetable won't depend on whether the US
is "winning" the war or whether the Afghan army is ready to take over.
On the other hand, it won't be a firm schedule, so in fact it's
possible that the war might be dragged out much longer than Obama
envisions. Meanwhile, he's sending up to 30,000 forces, whose arrival
will be staggered -- i.e., not all at once -- and no doubt many of
those troops will be described as trainers of the no-account Afghan
National Army and police.
Obama may or may not say so explicitly, but the way out has to involve
a negotiated deal with the main insurgent force, the Taliban, and its
allies, possibly including the disreputable warlord, Gulbuddin
Hekmatyar, along with their sponsors in the Pakistani military and its
intelligence service, the ISI. Our erstwhile allies in Europe are
already saying so.
To wit, the Guardian describes Europe's attitude thus, and in no
uncertain terms:
"A lengthy withdrawal of international forces from Afghanistan will
start unfolding towards the end of next year under plans to be
agreed by allied powers at a conference in London in January."
Of course, the United States will be a participant in the London
conference.
<end excerpt>
Michael