On Sun, 20 Dec 2009, Chris Doss wrote:
> I'm not at all saying that you're wrong (I don't know enough about
> Afghan particulars to do so)
And you haven't read the Nation article I linked to, right?
> but paying off the opposition and coopting premodern traditions (like,
> exploiting blood feuds between clans that were linked to
> Taliban-style Islamism and those that were Sufis) is pretty much exactly
> how Russia established peace in Chechnya
Backing one warlord to be the centralized warload did work for Russia in Chechnya. But that's not what we're doing, and this is a different situation.
The problem for Russia in Chechnya was basically a problem with the Chechnyan equivalent of al-Qaeda -- crazy ideology driven foreigners campaigning for a super-Umma. The solution was to ally with the strongest Chechnya warlord against them (as well as against any other local threats to his rule).
The equivalent of the Russian method in Afghanistan would be to ally with the Taliban and push out al-Qaeda. In an alternative SimAfghan universe where that was thinkable, it would work easily because al-Qaeda's already gone and the Taliban aren't happy with the results of hosting them and don't want them back.
But not only is it not possible in this universe, it isn't the problem, because like I said, al-Qaeda's gone. The problem here is a problem created by the attempt to centralize an Afghan state that has never been centralized and has no basis for it. Stop doing it, accept the loose federative tribal arrangements, and direct your efforts to keep out foreigners -- something all foreigners have an interest in because everyone with a border is more threatened than us -- and the problem is solved.
As for comparing the Russian method with this -- well again, read the article. They are nothing similar. We are not paying the Taliban directly to ally with us, or co-opting the warlords. We're allowing them to blackmail us while we fight them. Our method multiples the little groups rather than centralizing them. And it builds no strong alliances with us.
Michael