[lbo-talk] CBO on HR 1

SA s11131978 at gmail.com
Thu Feb 12 12:58:48 PST 2009


Marvin Gandall wrote:


> Why would those losing their jobs and homes and income stop asking
> government to come to their aid? They'd leave the debates about the
> efficacy - ie. the "idea" - of stimulus to the economists and
> politicians.

I think the reverse is true. People tend to see the stimulus as an abstract "economic issue" - as in, will it be "good for the economy"? They don't tend to think primarily about whether it will benefit them personally. I think that's actually a symptom of the hegemony of the right: Most people don't see public programs as benefiting them, and when they do perceive a benefit (as with Social Security or Medicare) they refuse to place it in the mental category of "government spending."

The Quinnipiac Poll of states has been asking people whether they think the stimulus will benefit them personally. There seems to be little relationship between support for the bill and expectation of personal benefit:


> Pennsylvania:
> Voters support 54 - 37 percent President Obama's Economic Stimulus
> Package, but say 61 - 34 percent that the stimulus plan will not help
> them personally, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack)
> University poll finds.
>
> Connecticut:
> By a 58 - 32 percent margin, voters support Obama's Economic Stimulus
> Package, and 52 percent are "very confident" or "somewhat confident"
> it will work, while 45 percent are "not too confident" or "not
> confident at all." And voters say 59 - 33 percent that the Stimulus
> Package will not help them personally. Democrats split 45 - 43 percent
> on whether the package will help, while Republicans, independent
> voters and voters in every income and age group do not expect to
> benefit personally.
>
> Ohio:
> Ohio voters give President Barack Obama a 67 - 16 percent approval
> rating and support his Economic Stimulus Package 57 - 32 percent, but
> voters say 51 - 42 percent that the stimulus plan won't help them
> personally, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

And Gallup found that people worried about money and people not worried about money had similar levels of support for the stimulus. Party ID was five times better as a predictor of support or opposition (a 54-point vs. 11-point spread):

http://www.gallup.com/poll/114577/Stimulus-Support-Edges-Higher.aspx

SA



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