[lbo-talk] Why unemployment will get very bad

SA s11131978 at gmail.com
Mon Feb 16 20:41:50 PST 2009


W. Kiernan wrote:


> SA wrote:
> >
> > http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node/3071
> >
> > ...This recession is different. The rise in inflows
> > has been unparalleled. Not only has the rate of
> > inflow already risen by more than any other recession,
> > but it's been on an unbroken rising streak for a much
> > longer period of time, and there's no sign of a
> > reduction yet...
>
> The other day I was messing with BLS text files and I came up with this:
>
> http://uncharted.org/frownland/pix/recession3.jpg
>
> which indicates (to me, anyway) that the '74 recession was sharper
> than the current one.

The chart I posted showed the quarter-by-quarter change in the flow of gross job losses. This chart shows the total stock of cumulative net job losses. Your chart is a more meaningful measure of total net pain so far. My chart was meant to give an indication of what the future holds.


> In contrast, as I understand it, the '82 and '91 recessions were not
> the fault of dark malicious foreigners, but were actually engineered
> recessions, courtesy of that fucking prick Greenspan and the Fed. The
> Fed ran the prime rate up specifically and explicitly to increase
> unemployment as an anti-inflationary measure to bail out bond holders.
> Recovery came only when the bond-holders were happy; the Fed
> controlled the depth and duration of those recessions like a virtuoso
> playing a violin.
>
> Then the '02 and '08 recessions were caused by something yet different
> and far less controllable by bankers's manipulations; in '02, the
> collapse of the tech bubble, and in '08, the collapse of the mortgage
> bubble.

I'd say that's right.

SA



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