[lbo-talk] Roubini

SA s11131978 at gmail.com
Wed Jan 7 18:31:37 PST 2009


Doug Henwood wrote:


>
> On Jan 7, 2009, at 8:54 PM, SA wrote:
>
>> Sorry for digging this up from the archives, but I just want to put
>> this on record: I think Roubini is crazy if he thinks unemployment
>> will peak at 9%. I would be shocked if it didn't get into double-digits.
>
> The latest from Reinhart & Rogoff:
>
> <http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/rogoff/files/Aftermath.pdf>
>
> says you're probably right. An average of 7 point increase in
> unemployment in the wake of financial crises, which would take us to
> about 11.5%.

And among the countries in that average, developed countries actually had bigger jumps than the developing countries (e.g., Sweden and Finland 1991).

SA



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