> That's about 3.4% per year. Ok. Are you talking about manufacturing output or value
> added? i.e., about the value of a car or the value of a car minus the imported inputs.
>
> Also, how much of the manufacturing consists of products that get high prices because of
> intellectual property protection; i.e. products that have relatively little manufacturing
> activity per dollar of sales.
>
>
>> By my calculation, US manufacturing output per capita has risen by 98%
>> since 1980 - i.e., almost doubled. Total output per capita *excluding*
>> finance has risen roughly 228% - i.e., more than tripled.
Sorry, that total output-excluding-finance number was crazy - thanks for pointing out the annual figure. The right number for per capita total output excluding finance is an increase of 90% - almost doubling - from 1980 to 2007. The manufacturing number is definitely right because I took it straight from the BEA's quantity index for manufacturing value added - it also almost doubled. (The two aren't strictly comparable; I used an income measure for total output excluding finance whereas the mfg number is an output number, but obviously the right numbers wouldn't change much. Also, I used the overall GDP deflator for national income minus finance, whereas the right deflator would be slightly infinitesimally different since we're excluding finance, but again, the discrepancy obviously would be minimal. Finance hasn't changed much as a percentage of GDP - from about 14% to 18%.)
So - assuming the mfg sector and the total economy minus finance (and insurance and real estate) are both good proxies for whatever one's notion of the "real" or "useful" economy is, I think a doubling in 27 years makes it hard to argue that capitalism has been unable to produce enough investment for sustained long-term growth.
SA