On Thu, 2 Jul 2009, Jordan Hayes wrote:
> The fear of a repeat of 1973/1974 are still felt today, perhaps even
> moreso.
So I should point out that it's almost completely misunderstood. The prices didn't jump because of the oil embargo (which was all of 5% total supplies, lasted a whole month, and was completely maneuvered around by buying through entities from places that were legal and switching to elsewhere). The prices quadrupled because they had been kept unnaturally low by the 7 sisters distribution cartel. They shot up to their proper market level.
And the idea of simply not having access to oil was never a reality. Even back in those days, when there was no real market in oil (the spot market was vestigial until post-1979) it was impossible for a country to keep a country from buying oil under assumed entities or from simply swapping supplies with countries not on the list.
If I may be so immodest, I wrote something at length on the question of whether oil was a strategic good back around the beginning of the Iraq war:
http://mailman.lbo-talk.org/2003/2003-March/008875.html
Michael