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July 29, 2009Early Read on 2010 Suggests Midterms Could Be Competitive Democrats hold slight edge in 2010 vote among registered voters
by Jeffrey M. Jones
PRINCETON, NJ -- If the elections for Congress were held today, 50% of U.S. registered voters say they would vote for the Democratic candidate in their district and 44% for the Republican candidate.
Gallup uses this "generic" ballot to measure support for the two parties in congressional elections. Historically, the final pre- election generic congressional ballot based on likely voters has proven to be an accurate predictor of the national two-party vote for the U.S. House in past midterm elections. Thetwo-party vote closely corresponds to the share of seats each party wins in the U.S. House of Representatives.
Gallup's ability to predict the outcome using the generic ballot this far out from the election using registered voters is unclear given the limited historical data from years prior to the midterm elections.
However, past data does suggest that Democrats typically need a large lead on the generic ballot among all registered voters in midterm elections to maintain a lead once turnout is taken into account.
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