> F.Y.I., I reproduce below certain points pertaining to the Iranian
> economy from the IMF's 2008 Article IV Consultation. The entire report can
> be viewed online at http://bit.ly/12f1Y8 and includes much useful data.
> It was published 14 August 2008.
Yes, interesting report. Leaving aside the IMF's obvious sado-monetarist reflexes - the usual panegyrics to deficit-cutting, privatization and related madness - it's clear Iran's accumulation regime has some fundamental problems. Its reserves went up from only $61 billion to $82 billion at the peak of the oil boom. Presumably too much of that energy surplus wasn't saved or invested, but spent on consumption, sparking high internal inflation -- more money chasing imported goods, most likely.
Iran urgently needs its own developmental state. It has some of the preconditions -- a big state sector, non-commercial foundations, plenty of oil reserves, large internal market, some history of industrialization. But then, this is true of most of Central Asia -- lots of potential, combined with the urgent need for a development strategy. Hopefully the CSTO, SCO and other Eurasian integration schemes will help shorten the birth-pangs of this process.
-- DRR