--- On Sat, 3/14/09, Jim Farmelant <farmelantj at juno.com> wrote:
> >
>
> Alexis de Tocqueville in his book, *The Ancien Régime and
> the
> Revolution*,
> emphasized the role that increasing prosperity played in
> generating
> resistance by increasing people's expectations of
> future improvements.
> It's when these expectations turn out not to be met
> that people will
> then rebel. So misery by itself tends not to generate
> rebellion. In
> fact
> it usually breeds passivity.
>
[WS:] That is also the central claim of Davies J-curve theory of social revolutions http://www.fragilecologies.com/jun27_03.html
I think it explains quite a bit when it comes to social unrest in Eastern Europe under communism. However, the problem with this approach is that it does not explain the absence of a revolution in situations that clearly fit the J-curve model e.g. the sudden drop in living conditions during the Great Depression in the US. (In other words, the theory says "if p then q". "P" obtains (Depression) but "q" (revolt) does not follow i,e "p but not q" which squarely contradicts the theory by the rule of modus tollens.)
I think that the shortcoming of this approach is grounded in individualistic treatment of expectations and a failure to put them ina broader cognitive framework. The cognitive framework created by the Communist ideology in EE was that of quick and irreversible progress or "march forward." The cognitive framework created by the capitalist discourse (it is not a coherent ideology) is that of a cycle - things go up and down, as one thing goes bust another one emerges. Within that cognitive framework, expectations are more likely to follow drops in the economy. As the economy contracts, people adjust their expectations accordingly: they spend less and look for new opportunities.
I will also conjecture that J-curve theory is better suited for pre-modern societies, with more-or-less static frame of expectations, but does not fare as well in modern capitalist societies, where expectations are formed withing a far more dynamic frame.
Wojtek