[lbo-talk] Geithner Plan Mark II

Rudy Fichtenbaum rudy.fichtenbaum at wright.edu
Tue Mar 24 13:01:41 PDT 2009


What I don't understand about the Geithner plan is why the banks would want to sell their "toxic" assets. I understand why buying them would be a good deal for hedge funds, private equity funds etc. But why wouldn't a bank say I would rather hold onto these "assets" rather than sell them and take a loss. After all, every time a big bank gets in trouble the government or the FED bails them out because they are too big to fail. Is there something in the plan that will force banks to sell these "assets?"

Rudy

Jordan Hayes wrote:
> [ Re: Legacy Loan Program ]
>
>> The Treasury will match the equity the private hedge
>> funds put in dollar for dollar. And all leveraging is
>> applied will apply to both equity returns proportionately.
>> So whatever upside they make, we'll make.
>
> Well, not exactly. In the example they give (6:1 debt-to-equity, $84
> auction price), each of Treasury and the private investors contributes
> $6 and the PPIF (nee FDIC) issues (and guarantees) debt of the
> remaining $72. If the final value winds up being, say, $90, then PPIF
> gets their $72 back, and each of Treasury and private investor get $9.
>
> This is a 50% return for the private investor (9/6 - 1); it's a 3%
> return for the US government (81/78 - 1). If it winds up being $72,
> the private investor takes a $6 loss; the USG takes a $78 loss. If it
> winds up being $50, the private investor takes a $6 loss ... The USG
> takes a $30 loss. If by some crazy chance it all pays off $100, the
> private investor makes a 133% gain (14/6 -1) and the USG makes about a
> 10% return ...
>
> So the leverage is significant here. All that being said, I still
> don't think it's a terrible plan.
>
>> The private investors will have an incentive to bid as low
>> as possible to make the most amount of money, and we'll make
>> the same.
>
> Sorta. I presume that the *high* bidder will win, but I haven't seen
> details of the auction yet.
>
> /jordan
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-- Rudy Fichtenbaum Professor of Economics Chief Negotiator AAUP-WSU Wright State University Dayton, OH 45435-0001 937-775-3085



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