> < what sayeth Doug ?>
>
> http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/03/your-humble-blogger-had-naive-moment.html#links
>
> (linked to the following piece:
> http://online.barrons.com/article/SB123819645529561507.html?page=2)
>
> The misleading figures cut across a wide swath of the economy, encompassing
> housing, manufacturing, employment -- you name it. The leading agent of
> deception, unintentional or otherwise, has been that old sly villain,
> seasonal adjustment. As it turns out, the seasons don't need adjustment as
> much as the adjustors need seasoning.
>
Rosenberg himself is predicting that these problems will be corrected in the final version of the stats (or earlier), which will be released by the Commerce Department in June. If there was no seasonal adjustment, then the stats would *really* be misleading, since they'd bounce around with no relation to the underlying trend. Statistics are never perfect, but no one here is alleging that anyone is cooking the books.
SA