[lbo-talk] Alan Abelson: Official Economics Statistics Misleading

SA s11131978 at gmail.com
Sun Mar 29 05:34:15 PDT 2009


Ira Glazer wrote:


> if the revised statistics are significantly different then it's
> ridiculous to make conclusions or decisions based on the original ones
>

Yes, exactly. But if that happened it would be the fault of the statistics' consumers, not their producers. That's the whole reason why Rosenberg wrote that analysis, to alert the consumers to that fact. And I would bet he got help from the very Commerce Department statisticians who produced the numbers.


> the issue is not necessarily one of malfeasance, but rather of technical
> accuracy
>

Here's the 77-page introduction to the NIPA Handbook. Seasonal adjustment is summarized on PDF pages 57-58. I'm sure they'd welcome suggestions for producing better seasonal adjustments.

http://www.bea.gov/national/pdf/NIPAhandbookch1-4.pdf

SA



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