[lbo-talk] Maine ballot initiatives

Doug Henwood dhenwood at panix.com
Fri Nov 6 09:44:35 PST 2009


[Posted to the AAPOR list and forwarded with permission. Typo corrected.]

From: Jan Werner <jwerner at JWDP.COM> Date: November 6, 2009 11:30:28 AM EST To: AAPORNET at ASU.EDU Subject: Maine ballot initiatives

The Maine ballot initiative to repeal the gay marriage law (Question 1) read:

"Do you want to reject the new law that lets same-sex couples

marry and allows individuals and religious groups to refuse to

perform these marriages?"

A "Yes" vote on the people's veto was a vote to repeal the same-sex law. A "No" vote was a vote to keep the law and allow gay marriage. This effectively frames the question as a double negative, a tactic frequently used in many other initiatives over the years.

Question 1 passed by 52.75% to 47.25%, a margin of about 28,000 votes out of a little over 500,000 cast.

At the same time, another ballot initiative to legalize medical marijuana (Question 5) passed by 58.6% to 41.4%, a margin of more than 86,000 out of roughly the same number of votes cast. Question 5 read:

"Do you want to change the medical marijuana laws to allow

treatment of more medical conditions and to create a regulated

system of distribution?"

Note that in the first case, a "Yes" vote was actually a "No" vote in regard to gay marriage, whereas in the second case, a "Yes" vote was in favor of can be called the more "liberal" position.

This raises the question of just how many of those voting "Yes" on Question 1 did so thinking they were voting in favor of allowing gay marriage in Maine.

Given that a swing of less than 3% of the votes cast would have changed the outcome, this is not an idle question.

Jan Werner



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