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http://www.nber.org/~schools/charterschoolseval/memo_on_the_credo_study.pdf
"A Statistical Mistake in the CREDO Study of Charter Schools"
Caroline M. Hoxby
Stanford University and NBER
August 2009*
Abstract
A recent study of charter schools' effect on student achievement
has been published by CREDO (2009). It contains a statistical
mistake that causes a biased estimate of how charter schools
affect achievement. This paper explains that mistake. Essentially,
the achievement of charter school students is measured with much
more error than the achievement of the controls, which are not
individual students but are group averages of students in the
traditional public schools. By using the achievement data as
both the dependent variable and (lagged) an independent variable,
the CREDO study forces the estimated effect of charter schools
to be biased, and the bias is negative unless the CREDO data
are very atypical of administrative achievement data. This paper
also notes that the CREDO study violates four rules for the
empirically sound use of matching methods to evaluate charter
schools' effects.