[lbo-talk] climate change

[Michael McIntyre]

Taleb's approach wouldn't explain why different models consistently
predict the same trend.  And this quote from JH is bullshit.  Phil
Jones draws attention to a short-term period of non-warming and
suggests that the most likely explanation is not (a) that global
warming is a crock (as JH implies), nor even (b) that the models need
work to explain short-term variation, but (c) that data collection
needs to be improved, i.e., that the models are likely to be more
accurate than the data.

On Sat, Nov 21, 2009 at 10:40 AM, Itamar Turner-Trauring (aka
Shtull-Trauring) <itamar at itamarst.org> wrote:
> On Sat, 2009-11-21 at 16:00 +0000, James Heartfield wrote:
>> Phil Jones, of the Hadley Climate Research Unit, owns up to the fact
>> that the world is nt warming
>>
>> 'The fact is that we can't account for the lack of warming at the
>> moment and it is a travesty that we can't. The CERES data published in
>> the August BAMS 09 supplement on 2008 shows there should be even more
>> warming: but the data are surely wrong. Our observing system is
>> inadequate.'
>
> I like Taleb's approach to the issue: given how complex the phenomena
> being modeled are, the global warming projections from computer models
> are probably crap, garbage in garbage out. However, messing with a
> massively complex and interdependent system like our ecosphere is a
> terrible idea regardless, since we have to live in it and have no idea
> what the impact of our actions will be.
>
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