At 7:36 PM -0500 3/10/09, Carrol Cox wrote:
>Just a footnote (taking the above as literal): In developed nations
>without a peasantry, "vilent" revolution is not all that violent. It all
>depends on whether in the first few days of mass demonstrations the
>troops obey orders to fire. If they do, the insurrection fails. If they
>don't, the government falls, there follows a period of chaos, and a new
>government (perhaps revolutionary, perhaps not) assumes power.
You might have that back to front. Wasn't the Russian revolution sparked by, not crushed by, troops opening fire on peaceful demonstrators who were appealing to the beloved ruler to help them?
And logically, it doesn't necessarily follow that a revolution or insurrection fails just because the troops open fire. It only fails if the troops keep doing it. Over and over again.
In fact it only fails if they can be be relied on to keep opening fire on their brothers and sisters and mothers and children. Even if the rulers are a little bit worried about that, they are likely to flee. And they would have to be mad not to be a little bit worried about that happening eventually, once the populace is implacably determined and a bit riled up. (As a populace is apt to be when the rulers keep ordering the troops to open fire on them.)
So really, when you get right down to it, the bottom line is not even whether the troops stay loyal. It is the mood of the people. If the people have had it with the government or the system and have set their minds on revolution, then its game over. Once that point is reached, the troops won't stay loyal to the rulers ordering them to open fire on their own brothers and sisters and mothers and children.
WITBD, get the population behind you first. Your chances of defeating the US military machine with a Uzi are negligible.
Though I must say it pains me to say so. I admit the image of a raging Shag brandishing a Uzi is a wonderful fantasy. In my mind's eye she is wearing a little black beret with a red star on the front (lovingly hand-embroidered by her wizened grandmother.) Flaming red hair explodes from under the beret as she rampages through the streets, her Uzi spitting death at government thugs, who piss their pants and flee in panic at first the terrifying sight.
Bill Bartlett Bracknell Tas