By ALEXEI BARRIONUEVO
MONTEVIDEO, Uruguay — A Socialist former guerrilla fighter known for speaking his mind emerged the clear winner of Sunday’s elections for president of Uruguay but did not muster enough votes to avoid a November runoff, in what analysts said was a referendum on the current leftist government.
Jose Mujica, a Socialist senator who spent 14 years in prison for waging an urban guerilla war against the military dictatorship here, was the candidate of the governing Broad Front coalition, whose tenure has improved economic conditions here. The Broad Front’s incumbent president, Tabare Vasquez, remains popular and Mr. Mujica was considered the front-runner.
Mr. Mujica’s top challenger was Luis Alberto Lacalle, a conservative former president and the candidate of the National Party.
With 99 percent of the votes counted, the Broad Front had 47.5 percent of the votes; the National Party was trailing with 28.6 percent and the Colorado Party had 16.7 percent, according to the Electoral Court of Uruguay.
Mr. Mujica needed more than 50 percent of the vote to avoid a runoff election on Nov. 29. Voters on Sunday also rejected a much-discussed initiative to remove amnesty for human rights abuses under the 1973-85 dictatorship.
Under President Vasquez, the Broad Front coalition led Uruguay out of a deep economic funk earlier this decade. Broad Front was the first leftist movement in Uruguay to break the hold of a two-party system under which either the National or the Colorado party held power for more than 150 years.
Broad Front quelled the fears of Uruguayans and foreign investors by charting a pragmatic path closer to those followed by the governments in Brazil, Chile and Peru, than to those of Venezuela, Bolivia and Ecuador, which nationalized industries and made conditions less favorable for foreign investors.
“Uruguay fits into the consolidated left of the hemisphere and will probably stay there for the foreseeable future,” said Riordan Roett, who chairs the Latin American Studies program at Johns Hopkins University.
Mr. Vasquez, a doctor, has a 60 percent approval rating, opinion polls show, a credit to his steady handling of the economy. Uruguay’s Constitution does not allow for re-election, and Mr. Vasquez, in contrast to leaders like Hugo Chavez of Venezuela or Alvaro Uribe of Colombia, did not push for a referendum to loosen term limits.
But Uruguayans seemed inclined to give Broad Front a chance to deepen its program.
“Five years is not a lot of time, and this government has done a lot of good things with the economy in very little time, but there is much more to do,” said Analia Chocho, 33, who attended the final rally for Mr. Mujica on Thursday in Pando, a small city just outside of Montevideo.
Mr. Vasquez followed a prescription of raising taxes on the wealthy to finance social programs for the poor and working class, such as major construction of low-income housing and an expansion of health care to all workers and their children.
Since the financial crisis of 2002, Uruguay’s unemployment rate dropped by half to about 7 percent and the percentage of people classified as poor fell to about 20 percent from 35 percent, government figures show.
Uruguay’s race pitted Mr. Lacalle, a neo-liberal who wants to eliminate the income tax and favors privatizing state firms and shrinking government, against Mr. Mujica, who believes in more state involvement in industries and has said he would continue to deepen social programs.
“But both have said they want to continue the macroeconomic policies of Tabare Vasquez,” said Juan Carlos Doyenart, a political analyst here. “But this race was transformed into a contest of style over substance, more of images than of concrete issues.”
In style and background, the two men offer a stark contrast.
Mr. Lacalle, 68, is a former lawyer and journalist from Uruguay’s political elite who helped found the Mercosur trade bloc during a difficult period of hyperinflation.
Mr. Mujica, 74, a founder of the Tupamaro guerilla movement that tried to lead a social revolution here, was jailed for most of the military dictatorship and was also tortured.
He never attended university but managed to be elected a senator. He did not take to the trappings of power, choosing to live in a modest home in the country. He has proposed giving away his presidential salary if elected and living on the salary of his wife, also a senator.
He wears cardigan sweaters and captivates audiences with his humble tone and plain language. At a speech on Thursday, he promised social change and a government that would transform Uruguay into a “modern and developed” country.
“Pepe,” he told supporters Thursday, referring to his nickname, “is an old companion at your side, nothing more, nothing less.”
But Mr. Mujica has caused concerns for some voters because of his political history and verbal indiscretions. He caused a ruckus in Argentina last month when he questioned the government of Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner, saying in an interview with La Nacion newspaper that it didn’t have “a plan for the future” and lived “too much in the present.”
President Vasquez later called some of Mr. Mujica’s statements “stupid.”
Those concerns have been tempered somewhat by his choice of Danilo Astori, the finance minister under Mr. Vasquez, as his running mate. Mr. Mujica has said he has asked Mr. Astori to run the economy if they are elected.
Uruguay’s president faces the challenge of rebuilding frayed relations with neighbor Argentina, which has been at odds with Uruguay over a Finnish paper mill built on the Uruguayan side of a river between the two countries. The Argentine government and environmentalists argued the plant should have been relocated.
Mr. Mujica calmed fears during the campaign that he would push Uruguay closer to Mr. Chavez’s orbit by saying he hopes to pattern his government on that of Brazil’s president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who has taken a pragmatic approach to foreign investment and macro-economic management while deepening social protections for the underclasses. Mr. da Silva shares a similarly humble background as a former auto-plant worker with a grade-school education.