> Imagined dialogue between an experienced, sympathetic, adult prosecutor with
> a thirteen year old aspiring model whose mother has called the cops when
> informed that her daughter had had sex with a rich movie director. Totally
> fictional.
Sure, maybe she's lying, but we have procedures for making that determination. There may be other evidence (the testimony of the woman who was there when Polanski busted out the Champagne) but it's probably not very favorable to Polanski. Why was he drinking Champagne with a 13 year old? Why was he photographing her alone? Those are bad facts. Sure, they could be worse: She could have had his baby -- and/or they could have swabbed his semen out of her. Mostly all they have is her story, and that's enough to support the charges. Problem is, her story contains a lot of idiosyncratic details that make it -- you know -- believable. If the jury sympathizes with her (and they probably will, because she's 13 and going through a rape trial) then an aggressive cross-examination won't be that effective, and then what would Polanski have been stuck with?
Not much -- which is why Polanski thought it was in his best interest to take a plea. If he doesn't get the benefit of his plea bargain (like if the judge doesn't accept the plea) then he had the right to take it back and renegotiate or head to trial. Instead he ran. Why? Most likely because Polanski knew he'd have to renegotiate a much suckier plea deal that the judge would actually approve or roll the dice with a jury and face the prospect of getting hammered if he got convicted. Under the circumstances, I can't say I blame him.
Most sex cases boil down to whether the victim is believable or not, which is what makes them so scary. This is especially true when the victim is very young or the adults involved have a conflict like a divorce. One solution would be to raise the threshold for what level of evidence is sufficient to support a sex offense conviction, but that's going to mean a lot of sex offenses go unprosecuted. These cases are always going to be especially difficult no matter what kind of system or world you live in.
-WD