I would think a very conservative prognosis for Cuba would be to have them become about as capitalist as Belarus or Libya are today in the next twenty years.
Cuba eases grip on economy
Cuba is to encourage more of its citizens to work for themselves and hire their own workers, easing the communist state’s vice-like grip on its economy.
Raúl Castro, Cuba’s president, said the move was designed to create jobs for more than a million people who are expected to be laid off over the next five years.
The move to ease controls on small businesses and allow more self-employment is a significant step.
However, the president, the brother of Fidel, played down the possibility of more drastic free market reforms as Cuba struggled to cope with financial crisis.
“With experience accumulated in more than 55 years of revolutionary struggle, it doesn’t seem like we’re doing too badly, nor that desperation or frustration have been our companions along the way,” he told the Cuban parliament.
Around 95 per cent of Cuban adults work for the government but Castro has said as much as a fifth of their jobs are redundant and may be cut.
Marino Murillo, the economy minister, said the island was “updating” rather than reforming its economy and did not intend to copy China.
“The state doesn’t have to be in charge of everything,” he said.